By Abdallah Adra, Senior Vice President – Investment, MENA at WPP Media

In the Midyear edition of This Year, Next Year, WPP Media’s biannual global advertising forecast, our analysis shows an industry demonstrating robust growth in the face of significant geopolitical and economic volatility. However, when we turn our focus to our own MENA region, the story that emerges is one of profound resilience, underpinned by unique structural forces that differentiate it from the global picture. Diving deeper into our region, WPP Media’s 2026 Midyear Forecast for MENA predicts the advertising market will expand by 7% to reach a value of $8.4 billion. While this figure is notable, a deeper analysis reveals a market of two distinct halves, demanding a nuanced and agile investment strategy.

The first half of the year will likely remain shaped by the prevailing economic headwinds and regional conflicts, which continue to weigh on advertiser budgets. However, we anticipate a considerable acceleration in the latter half of the year. This recovery will be driven by two primary catalysts: a significant surge in advertiser demand surrounding the FIFA World Cup and a projected stabilisation of the geopolitical landscape, enabling sectors such as Travel, Tourism and Real Estate to rebound strongly and reinvest in brand-building campaigns that restore consumer confidence.

While much of the world’s 8.9% ad growth is being fuelled by ecommerce and a concentrated, AI-centric investment boom, a veritable ‘Gold Rush,’ as our global report terms it, the engine of MENA’s resilience is fundamentally different. Our market’s trajectory is less about a single technology trend and more about a profound, structural transformation: the region’s ambitious, long-term vision of economic diversification. This strategic pivot to engineer a new, post-carbon economy has created a powerful countervailing force, one that is fundamentally reshaping the advertising landscape and providing a stable foundation for growth. 

This transformation is most evident in the rapid reallocation of capital within the digital economy, where spectacular growth is being recorded in specific channels.

The most significant development is the meteoric rise of Commerce Media. The forecast shows this channel surging by 22.2% to reach $636 million in 2026, making it the fastest-growing segment. The momentum is so substantial that we project Commerce Media will eclipse the entire television advertising market in value within the next 12 months. This is driven not only by global platforms but, crucially, by the emergence of local and regional retailers who are developing proprietary platforms and creating a uniquely vibrant digital marketplace.

This is complemented by a surge in streaming. While the Total TV market is forecast to contract by 1.9%, after experiencing a steeper decline in 2025, streaming (BVOD) advertising is set to grow by an impressive 38.3%. This is not merely a shift in viewing habits; it represents a fundamental realignment of revenue flows and investment, demonstrating a clear migration of capital toward on-demand digital environments.

When contextualising MENA’s 7% growth against the global 8.9% figure, it is crucial to look beyond the headline numbers. The global forecast is heavily skewed by the scale of the U.S. market and its AI-driven investment cycle. In contrast, MENA’s growth is achieved despite significant regional pressures, demonstrating a structural robustness that should give advertisers and investors considerable confidence. This, I would argue, points to a more sustainable and resilient foundation for the years to come, especially that these growth figures are based on user geography within MENA, excluding highly impacted export Ad spends, primarily by Travel clients, targeting territories outside the region.

A closer look at the channel-level dynamics from the WPP Media report reveals where this transformation is most pronounced. Commerce is the undisputed growth leader, expanding by 22.2% to capture a 9% share of the total ad market. Within the broad Content category, which totals $5.2 billion, we see a clear pivot from traditional to digital; while Total TV advertising contracts by 1.9%, streaming grows by a remarkable 38.3% and Gaming continues its ascent with 20% year-over-year growth. The Intelligence category, representing a stable 18% of the market, is holding its share, though the emergence of Generative Search signals a coming evolution in discovery. Generative Search currently represents only a small fraction of total search revenue, yet its projected growth over the next five years suggests a fundamental redefinition of how consumers discover information and how brands earn visibility in digital environments. AI-mediated discovery, through Google’s AI Overviews and AI Mode, as well as paid placements within LLM products like ChatGPT, is beginning to reshape how audiences find and engage with content. Finally, the Location-based sector presents a mixed forecast: a temporary 5.2% decline in Out-of-Home advertising reflects short-term advertiser caution in key sectors, though with the channel’s ongoing digital transformation, DOOH is forecasted to represent 49% of total OOH revenue by 2030, providing a solid foundation for recovery.

For brands and media investors, the key takeaway from the This Year, Next Year 2026 forecast is the existence of a strategic imperative. The current market requires a dual approach: one that carefully navigates the immediate challenges while simultaneously investing in the powerful, long-term transformation that is already underway. The data from WPP Media clearly shows where capital is being reallocated for growth. Channels like Commerce Media and Streaming are no longer emerging trends; they are core pillars of the new advertising ecosystem. Success in this evolving landscape will belong to those who can look beyond short-term volatility and make strategic investments in the high-growth channels that are defining the future of our region’s market.

The dynamics shaping our region are both complex and filled with opportunity. The insights presented in this analysis are drawn from our comprehensive midyear review. We welcome the opportunity to discuss these market shifts and what they mean for your brand in greater detail. For those interested in receiving a full copy of the WPP Media This Year, Next Year Global and MENA reports, I invite you to connect with our team by writing to menamarcoms@wppmedia.com.